Survivorship Bias

A great post from David McRaney about survivorship bias.

Among many interesting nuggets: “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight,” and “beware advice from the successful.”

A lot about how luck works and how people typically credit the lucky with skill and quite often draw the wrong conclusions from the success of some while systematically ignoring the failures of many, many others.

This kind of thing is my jam. Oh, and he wrote a book that is even more my jam.

Craig Calcaterra

Craig is the author of the daily baseball (and other things) newsletter, Cup of Coffee. He writes about other things at He lives in New Albany, Ohio with his wife, two kids, and many cats.

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